The U.S. President Donald Trump has significantly changed his stance on the Russian-Ukrainian war, but he has yet to provide any specifics about what will happen if the Russian leader Vladimir putin ignores his proposal to achieve peace within 50 days.
Source: Bukvy
This is stated in an analysis by CNN reporter Stephen Collinson.
The worst scenarios that could have happened to Ukraine under Trump’s presidency have not materialized. Trump did not surrender to putin, did not abandon Europe, and is more favorably inclined toward NATO than before.
Ukraine risks losing territory as a result of Russia’s summer offensive. But diplomatically, it is in a stronger position regarding its stance toward the Trump administration than anyone might have imagined, following the February dispute between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents at the White House. This means Ukraine’s chances of surviving as an independent, sovereign state have increased.
Trump’s hostility toward Kyiv may have mainly stemmed from his frustration that putin ignored his peace plans, which were aimed at the Kremlin.
However, Trump has now shed the notion that only his personality can force putin to submit. The American president promised Ukraine new weapons and warned Russia about sanctions.
And although this attempt to reach peace in Ukraine might also fail, ultimately, Trump is not abandoning Ukraine.
The 50 days Trump gave putin to make peace is not only time for Russia but also for the U.S. president himself to understand how to proceed on this issue.
During this period, NATO countries can increase their usefulness to Trump following a successful alliance summit.
Zelensky may try to build friendlier relations with Trump to shape his approach to any future peace agreements.
And while concerns remain about putin’s readiness to wage an indefinite war, there is a small chance that in a few weeks putin might reconsider the possibility of the U.S. rejecting a deal that would likely return to him territories seized during the three-year war and which he could present as a victory.
On Tuesday, Trump appeared optimistic defending the ultimatum’s timeline.
“Many opinions change very quickly — maybe not in 50 days, but perhaps much sooner,” the president said.
It would be unwise to assume Trump’s estrangement from putin is permanent.
His anger is probably mostly driven by frustration that putin has not given him a victory in the form of a peace agreement that could earn a Nobel Prize, rather than any deep sentimental or geopolitical concern about the consequences of abandoning Ukraine.
And, as always, the president softened his earlier harsh criticism of the Russian leader. Having criticized putin for “nonsense” last week, Trump told the BBC on Monday, “I’m not done with him yet.”
Trump is a businessman, acts on short deadlines, and constantly seeks small wins to showcase. So if he suddenly announced a meeting with putin at a summit next month, or got angry at what he sees as new disrespect from Zelensky, no one would be surprised.
“I am worried that Donald Trump is very susceptible to influence very quickly,” said Sabrina Singh, former deputy Pentagon press secretary and now a CNN international affairs commentator.
“I fear it’s only a matter of time before there’s another phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir putin during which putin makes some concessions and says we will set up a temporary five-day ceasefire, then turns around and says, ‘Ukraine violated this ceasefire, so we will continue the war.’”
Nevertheless, Trump’s change in position is significant.
By fulfilling his promise to quickly send top-tier weapons to Ukraine, he is making a big step. Patriot missile defense systems could save many civilian lives, but Trump is taking a political risk by abandoning pre-election skepticism about Ukraine shared by many MAGA supporters.
Trump has also shown considerable openness to sanctions. Trade between the U.S. and Russia is minimal at this stage, so bilateral sanctions won’t matter much. But if Trump truly follows through on threats to impose additional sanctions on countries that buy Russian products, especially energy exports, he could strangle the Kremlin’s economy and military machine.
Still, will he really target India and China — two major buyers of Russian goods — and take a step that could seriously damage U.S. relations with these giants and plunge the global economy into chaos? His unpredictable history of imposing and lifting tariffs in the global trade war suggests otherwise. Moscow may be counting on that.
It is also important what additional weapons Trump may send to Ukraine, if any.
Though Trump probably won’t admit it, he is in a situation similar to that long held by his predecessor Joe Biden. He is weighing how far he can pressure putin without taking provocative steps that cross invisible red lines and ignite war.
Trump’s new tolerance and even approval of NATO stem from real fears that his new term could trigger a political earthquake in the form of a U.S. withdrawal.
Credit goes to the quiet diplomacy of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, who have worked with Trump and advised Zelensky over recent months on how to approach the U.S.
Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte organized an alliance summit in the Netherlands last month that was a political triumph for Trump. The agreement for NATO countries to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035 allowed Trump to claim he forced Europe to seriously consider its defense and reduce the burden on the U.S.
On Monday, Trump, with Rutte in the Oval Office, praised Europe’s spirit in the war in Ukraine, adding, “Ultimately, a strong Europe is very good, very good.”
Now NATO has solved another political problem for the president. In fact, NATO is being used by him as cover to send Patriot missiles to Kyiv. European countries send batteries to Kyiv, after which U.S. NATO allies buy replacements from the U.S.
Rutte presented this diplomatic ballet as another victory for Trump.
The NATO channel provides Trump at least symbolic distance when supplying weapons to Ukraine for use in the war against Russia. It allows him a degree of plausible deniability if MAGA activists disapprove. And it satisfies Trump’s obsession with making profitable financial deals. He is expected to claim he secured a new sale and even jobs for American defense workers.
However, the promise that other offensive weapons might also reach Ukraine via the same route remains unspecified. It is unclear whether Ukraine will receive weapons allowing it to go on the offensive on the battlefield against Russia. And it is unlikely that any U.S. aid will compare to the large military aid packages approved by Congress during the Biden administration.
The atmosphere on Capitol Hill is also changing. The proposal to increase sanctions on Russia has already received strong bipartisan support in the Senate, and Trump has demonstrated he can secure a House majority to advance his priorities.
Trump ally Senator Lindsey Graham and his co-author Democrat Senator Richard Blumenthal said Monday that their bill could become a “real executive hammer” against Russia’s isolation. However, the measure could still cause divisions among Republicans, especially as Trump already faces dissatisfaction from some supporters over the Jeffrey Epstein case.
Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri, who opposes increased aid to Ukraine, said Tuesday he sees no urgent need for the bill now that Trump has threatened sanctions against Russia and even additional sanctions against India and China.
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky criticized the initiative, calling it “one of the most dangerous bills ever considered by the Senate.” He predicted a complete halt of trade with China, India, and Turkey if the U.S. imposes sanctions against them.
Thus, Trump’s domestic policy regarding Ukraine is not yet fully settled. Nor is the geopolitical situation.
Trump has adopted a tougher policy toward putin, but it is not final and not guaranteed to last. The scale of future U.S. military support for Ukraine remains unclear, even if the Kyiv government is currently in a more favorable relationship with the president than ever before. NATO European countries may breathe a sigh of relief over Trump, but his threats of a trade war have led to a deep transatlantic split.
All this means that putin’s main calculation—that he can outlast the West in the war in Ukraine—is unlikely to change significantly.ться.
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