China is the most important – and possibly decisive – helper of Russia’s military machine.
Source: Bukvy
During one of the recent massive attacks, the Russians launched nearly 500 drones against Ukraine. Ukraine fears that at the current pace of production, Russia will soon use twice as many “Shaheds” in attacks.
The “Shahed” is an Iranian-designed strike drone that is now being mass-produced in Russia. Previously, these drones were filled with American microelectronics smuggled through Asia to bypass sanctions.
But the latest “Shaheds” are equipped with Chinese parts. According to Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, the drones launched by Russians since the beginning of this year have antennas made in China. One “Shahed” had only two American components out of 15.
Since the start of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, China has been cautious about providing military aid to Russia. Ukrainian and European officials say China has rejected some Russian requests for assistance and equipment.
China is wary of large shipments of ready-made ammunition or weapons that could trigger sanctions from the West and the US. China is not ready for international condemnation if too much of its weaponry ends up on the front lines in Ukraine. But there are signs China has reached or even crossed that line.
According to Western officials, since 2023 China has been assisting Russia in various ways, including critical weapon components and conventional drones.
Much of this is publicly documented through analysis of weapon fragments, tracking of shipments in open sources, and cases of US sanctions against Chinese companies. But importantly, these officials also point to “small quantities of artillery ammunition and military drones.”
So far, public evidence of direct transfers of artillery ammunition from China to Russia has been scarce. In early 2023, China considered sending batches of 122mm and 152mm shells to Russia, but there are no signs this was done on a large scale.
Later that year, Ukrainian troops found Chinese-made mortar shells near Melitopol, southern Ukraine. It is unclear whether these transfers were direct from China or via third countries.
The situation with military drones is more alarming. Last year, Reuters reported that “Kupol,” a company part of the Russian state arms firm, developed and flight-tested a new drone model “Harpy-3” — essentially a copy of the Iranian “Shahed” — in China with help from Chinese firms. In October, the US Treasury sanctioned two Chinese companies, one of which supplied the engine for the drone.
In May 2024, Grant Shapps, then UK Defense Minister, declassified intelligence data about the drone to expose such cooperation.
“We knew exactly where it was,” he said.
Some European intelligence officials say they have yet to see evidence of lethal Chinese aid. But there is no doubt “Harpy-3” was a lethal system, not a dual-use aircraft, Shapps noted.
In practice, Chinese weapons are far less vital for Russia than Chinese components and tools. At a recent briefing for a small group of journalists including The Economist, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that “Chinese representatives” were present at production sites in Russia.
A European defense official confirmed this, adding that China seeks to test the effectiveness of its materials on the battlefield.
Since the war began, both sides have widely used relatively everyday Chinese-made products, including civilian drones (which among other things help detect targets). But in September last year, China tightened export restrictions on drones and their components. Theoretically, the new rules apply to both Russia and Ukraine. In practice, they are applied selectively.
Zelensky says China “cut off” deliveries of such equipment like small quadcopters to Ukraine while leaving the flow open to Russia.
China has also intensified cooperation with Russia in other ways, said a Ukrainian security official. According to him, Chinese leaders may be trying to counter US diplomatic efforts to drive a wedge between Russia and China.
He added that China helped Russia produce explosives (China dominates the global nitrocellulose market, a key ingredient) and fiber-optic cables used in wired jammer drones, which are becoming increasingly important on the battlefield.
At the end of May, Oleg Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Agency, publicly spoke about China supplying machine tools, chemicals, gunpowder, and other materials vital to Russia’s defense industry.
The research group “Council for Economic Security of Ukraine” notes that in 2023-2024 China became the leading supplier of industrial equipment to Russia, accounting for 80-90% of imported machine tools, many of which were originally Western-made.
What does China get in return? For starters, valuable lessons. Western officials say Russia and China “continue to study opportunities to exchange Western technologies captured on the battlefield in Ukraine.” China wants to obtain American precision-guided missiles, European cruise missiles, and more. There are also signs of cooperation in areas like space technology, previously unmentioned.
None of this means that China-Russia relations are good. Part of the Russian elite, including security officials, is concerned about their country’s growing dependence on China and Chinese espionage in Russia.
Despite all talk of friendship, Russia’s FSB imprisons Russian scientists for allegedly leaking secrets to China. Many of these people seem innocent; their arrests reflect deep-seated fear and prejudice against China. But without ongoing help from China, Russia’s defense industry would be paralyzed.
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