📉 The IMF has updated its pessimistic forecast for Ukraine: risks remain high

⚠️ The International Monetary Fund updated its forecast for Ukraine’s economy, maintaining a pessimistic baseline scenario with the war ending in Q2 2026 but highlighting high risks and the possibility of worse outcomes, reports Interfax-Ukraine.

Source: Gazeta.UA

📊 According to the new forecast, Ukraine’s real GDP is expected to shrink by 1% in 2025 — one percentage point worse than previously predicted. No economic growth is expected in 2026 (0%), with a recovery forecasted at 3.8% growth in 2027.

⚔️ The Fund emphasizes instability due to potential escalation of the war and a reduction in international financial and military aid.

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🗳️ New risks include political factors — populist pressure and opposition to reforms from certain political forces, which may complicate the parliamentary process and the implementation of necessary changes.

⏳ The IMF warns that any weakening of external support or delay in peace settlement will have long-term negative consequences for Ukraine’s economy.