⚔️ If the war in Ukraine ends in 2027, the population of the territory under control is expected to reach about 23.7 million by 2040.
Source: Gazeta.UA
📉 In a pessimistic scenario, if hostilities continue until 2030, the population will shrink to around 22 million. This was stated by demographer Oleksandr Hladun, deputy director of the Institute of Demography of the NAS of Ukraine, in an interview with TSN.ua.
🧮 The year the war ends is a key factor for demographic forecasts, as it will affect birth rates, mortality, and the return of refugees.
🌍 The Institute prepared two forecast options — optimistic (end of war in 2027) and pessimistic (in 2030), focusing only on the territories under control due to lack of reliable data on occupied areas.
🏠 Prolonged hostilities reduce birth rates, increase mortality, and decrease refugees’ motivation to return. Experience from Yugoslavia shows many refugees remain abroad after prolonged wars.
🔄 It is estimated that if the war ends in 2027, about 50% of refugees may return, but if the conflict continues until 2030, most will stay outside Ukraine.
🏚️ Major obstacles to return include loss of housing, children’s adaptation in foreign schools, parents’ employment, and integration in EU countries.
🇪🇺 Europe is interested in retaining Ukrainian migrants due to its own demographic crisis and thus implements corresponding support policies.
❗ Accounting for the population beyond the borders of 1991 is currently impossible due to mass settlement of Russian citizens in occupied territories and lack of reliable data.
Discussion about this post