Ukraine needs reliable security guarantees from Western allies as a key component of any peace agreement with Russia. At the same time, Kyiv doubts that these guarantees will be able to fully prevent renewed Russian aggression, so it is simultaneously preparing an alternative course of action.
Source: OBOZREVATEL
As Politico writes, the so-called “Plan B” envisions a radical strengthening of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the defense industry so that the country turns into a “steel porcupine” capable of deterring any future attack.
“Steel porcupine” as a new security strategy
The metaphor of a “steel porcupine” for postwar Ukraine was proposed last year by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. It refers to a permanently combat-ready mass army, a powerful defense industry, and investments in drones, missiles, and domestic weapons production.
Kyiv shares this logic. According to Head of Ukraine’s Mission to NATO Alona Hetmanchuk, the approach to security guarantees has changed fundamentally: their foundation should now be the Ukrainian army and the defense-industrial complex, not only partners’ commitments.
Large army and reforms
A key element of deterrence should be a large army of up to 800,000 personnel. At the same time, after the end of hostilities Ukraine will have to address the issue of demobilization and the creation of an effective peacetime army with proper pay and training.
Experts emphasize the need for deep reforms — from the training and command system to updating organizational and staff structures. Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov has also promised large-scale digitalization of the military and efforts to combat corruption.
Focus on drones and missiles
Special emphasis is placed on unmanned systems. Ukraine is already eliminating a significant number of Russian troops each month thanks to drone strikes. In 2025, the Ministry of Defense signed contracts for 4.5 million FPV drones, spending more than UAH 110 billion — three times more than the year before.
At the same time, Ukraine is developing its own missile programs and long-range drones capable of striking targets deep inside Russian territory. This is intended to become another factor deterring Russia from a new attack.
Money and the defense industry
The capacity of Ukraine’s defense-industrial complex allows it to produce weapons worth up to $35 billion per year, but due to a lack of funding, contracts have been signed for only about $12 billion. According to industry representatives, without long-term contracts and stable financing, serial production is impossible.
Ukraine is also counting on new EU defense initiatives, including the €150 billion SAFE program and loans of up to €90 billion, a significant portion of which could go toward defense.
Why Kyiv does not rely solely on allies
U.S. President Donald Trump has ruled out the prospect of Ukraine’s NATO membership, forcing Kyiv to treat bilateral security agreements with caution. Ukrainian authorities remember the experience of the Budapest Memorandum, which did not prevent Russian aggression.
Against this backdrop, “Plan B” comes down to a simple principle: if external guarantees prove unreliable, Ukraine must be capable of defending itself independently.
As President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasizes, with a neighbor like Russia, Ukraine must have an army and defenses strong enough to remain independent and free under any circumstances.
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