The Russian authorities are once again promoting narratives about supposedly “Russian” Odesa, intensifying informational attacks amid threats concerning the Black Sea region. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stress that these statements are purely cognitive and do not reflect Russia’s real military capabilities.
Source: OBOZREVATEL
On December 3, State Duma deputy Dmitry Pevtsov claimed that Russia “can afford a military operation” so that Russians could allegedly “return to their lands” in Odesa.
Earlier, on November 26, former Russian Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin expressed hope that Odesa and Mykolaiv might “voluntarily” join the Russian Federation.
These statements come after Vladimir Putin’s new threats on December 2 about potentially cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea. Analysts believe this is an attempt to create the illusion of possible territorial gains in Ukraine’s southern regions.
ISW highlights that the Kremlin has long used similar territorial claims — Putin has repeatedly called Odesa a “Russian” city and spoken of Russia’s “historical control” over the Black Sea region.
The revival of such messages in December 2025, according to analysts, is part of cognitive warfare: Russia aims to show that it can prolong the war and supposedly move closer to victory.
At the same time, ISW emphasizes that Russia does not have the real capability to cross the Dnipro or advance westward, let alone capture Odesa.
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