Russian troops suffered significant losses on the front in Ukraine, which in January exceeded the pace of mobilization by approximately 9,000 personnel. The Ukrainian military command intends to continue increasing enemy losses — up to 50,000 per month — in order to complicate Moscow’s force regeneration and force the Kremlin to seek new reserves.
Source: OBOZREVATEL
According to Bloomberg, in January the Russian army failed to achieve significant territorial gains. The current level of losses exceeds Russia’s capacity to replace personnel, indicating the effectiveness of Ukraine’s attrition strategy, although its long-term sustainability remains in question.
In December, the number of deaths in Russian forces nearly matched the monthly intake of new recruits, while in January the manpower deficit reached about 9,000. Ukrainian military experts link the increased effectiveness primarily to the development of drone operations and the use of modern strike technologies.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that the roughly 1,200-kilometer-long front remains difficult, with constant attacks by Russian forces. At the same time, their progress is limited: over three years of war, Russia has captured less than 1% of Ukraine’s territory.
At the current pace, estimates suggest that Russia would need about two years to fully establish control over eastern Donbas if the situation does not change. At the same time, the Kremlin is avoiding a new large-scale mobilization due to its unpopularity in society, which became evident after the September 2022 campaign, when the conscription of 300,000 reservists triggered mass departures of citizens and growing dissatisfaction with the war.
The Ukrainian command continues to plan further increases in enemy losses, seeking to force Moscow to reconsider its tactics and curb its offensive ambitions.
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