The European Union is considering the introduction of new, tough restrictions on the maritime transportation of Russian oil, which could seriously hit the financing of Russia’s war against Ukraine. This is reported by The Washington Post.
Source: PRYAMYI
The EU is discussing the possibility of a complete ban on maritime services necessary for exporting Russian oil, including insurance and transportation. Such measures could replace the current price-cap mechanism and be included in a new sanctions package timed to mark four years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Last week, 14 European countries, including the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, announced their readiness to intercept tankers of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” which is used to circumvent sanctions and often violates international maritime law.
According to the publication, Russia’s revenues from oil exports in January 2026 fell by 50% compared to the same period in 2025. This followed sanctions imposed by the U.S. Department of the Treasury in the fall of 2025 against Rosneft and Lukoil. The restrictions forced Moscow to sell oil at a discount of more than $20 per barrel.
The situation is further complicated by a possible reduction in India’s purchases of Russian oil in favor of supplies from the United States and potentially from Venezuela. The combination of these factors could lead to an increase in non-payments within the Russian economy.
If the EU adopts the new restrictions, they could affect nearly half of Russia’s oil exports — about 3.5 million barrels per day transported via the Baltic and Black Seas to India, China, and Turkey.
Economist Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs called transportation the “Achilles’ heel” of Russian oil exports, emphasizing its vulnerability to disruptions.
Sources close to Russian financial officials report that they have already warned Vladimir Putin about the risk of an economic crisis by the summer of 2026 due to falling budget revenues. High interest rates and active lending to finance the war are additionally putting pressure on the banking system.
Experts also note that U.S. sanctions have expanded the share of Russian oil production under restrictions to about 80% of total output. This is forcing Moscow to rely even more on the “shadow fleet.”
Against this backdrop, Ukraine is intensifying strikes on tankers linked to Russia. Since the end of November 2025, Ukrainian forces have attacked at least nine such vessels, using maritime and aerial drones as well as naval mines.
Analysts believe that tougher sanctions could force Russia to register most of the “shadow fleet” under its own flag, which would simplify further sanctions pressure. In response, Russia’s Maritime Board stated its readiness to protect the country’s shipping interests from the actions of “unfriendly states.”
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