📊 Bookmakers have updated their estimates for the likelihood of a ceasefire in Ukraine by December 31, 2025. As of August 8, this possibility is rated at 35%, compared to just 20% four days earlier.
Source: OBOZREVATEL
This is according to data from the crypto betting platform Polymarket. In total, over $14 million in bets have been placed on the topic of ending the war.
At the peak of bookmaker optimism in March 2025, the probability of a ceasefire was estimated at 77%. However, after multiple setbacks by U.S. President Donald Trump — who had promised to quickly end Russia’s war against Ukraine — confidence among bookmakers has significantly declined.
“International pressure to achieve peace has yielded no concrete results, as both sides remain firmly entrenched in their positions. These developments align with current market sentiment, where the 65% likelihood of a ‘No’ outcome reflects skepticism about a resolution by the stated deadline,” the platform itself commented.
Still, the largest bet as of August 8 — over 199,000 shares — was placed on a ceasefire occurring by the end of 2025. These shares are trading at 36 cents on the platform, while betting one share on the absence of a ceasefire costs 66 cents.
Betting on geopolitical events is not new, but the war in Ukraine has become one of the most discussed scenarios in the betting community. Polymarket and similar platforms generate odds based on analytical data, political statements, and insider insights from key global players.
Key conditions for such bets include:
- Only an official ceasefire confirmed by both sides and relevant organizations is considered;
- Humanitarian pauses or unofficial agreements do not qualify for payout;
- Payouts are made only after a formal public announcement of the cessation of hostilities.
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