The Kremlin remains confident in its ability to continue the war and is therefore highly likely to reject the new US-Ukraine peace plan, reports The New York Times.
Source: Censor.NET
Changes in the peace plan
According to the publication, the new 20-point peace plan presented by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky differs significantly from the previous version released in the fall. That earlier draft, in the author’s assessment, effectively amounted to Ukraine’s capitulation.
Zelensky presented the updated proposal as a compromise to the plan developed in November by Kyrylo Dmytriiev and Steve Witkoff. The document includes security guarantees that Kyiv seeks to prevent further Russian aggression, as well as provisions for post-war reconstruction of the country.
However, NYT notes that the Kremlin, encouraged by tactical successes on the battlefield and facing difficulties in presenting a new agreement to the Russian public as a “victory,” is unlikely to agree to this plan.
State of Russia’s economy and the course of the war
The report points out that the Russian economy is currently in its weakest state since 2022, yet still far from a crisis that would force the Kremlin to change course.
Analysts estimate that Russia controls about three-quarters of Donetsk region, and at the current pace of advance, it may take approximately 18 months to fully capture the area.
A steady influx of new recruits allows Moscow to continue combat operations despite heavy losses.
Interest in negotiations
Experts indicate that Russia is still interested in negotiations over a potential peace agreement in order to maintain working relations with Washington under President Donald Trump and to avoid full accountability for prolonging the war.
Additionally, Moscow aims to delay the potential introduction of new sanctions and economic restrictions by the US.
Analysts cited by The New York Times believe that diplomatic negotiations on the terms of peace will continue as the war drags on.