Media suggest that the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran could end either in a strategic victory for the West or in large-scale destabilization of the Middle East, according to an analysis by CNN.
Source: Bukvy
Journalists highlight three main scenarios for how events could unfold.
The most optimistic scenario assumes that massive airstrikes on the tools of Iranian state repression could trigger a popular uprising. In this case, a new Iran could fundamentally change the balance of power in the Middle East.
A more chaotic scenario envisions the current authorities or their remnants forming a new regime. At the same time, the U.S. operation could be considered successful if Iran’s nuclear, missile, and military potential is destroyed. This could satisfy Israel but create the risk of future conflicts.
The worst-case scenario is a repetition of the Libyan model, with civil war, internal conflicts, a refugee crisis, and the risk of Iranian nuclear materials falling into the hands of extremist groups.
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, CNN notes, cites various reasons for the war, allowing the White House political space to declare victory at a convenient moment.
Some analysts compare the situation to events in Venezuela, but experts emphasize that Washington has unsuccessfully tried for years to find moderate Iranian officials for cooperation.
Elliott Abrams, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes that after such a war, Iran could lose its status as a regional power and lose key elements of its military infrastructure, including its nuclear program and missile systems.
At the same time, neutralizing Iran could weaken Tehran’s cooperation with Russia and China, including reducing the supply of drones and missiles that Russia uses in the war against Ukraine.
However, journalists warn that positive scenarios may not materialize. The experience of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq shows that initial U.S. strategic calculations are often undermined by regional realities.
Critics also stress that demanding Iran’s full capitulation without a way to save face could only strengthen resistance. In their view, even a weakened regime can mobilize supporters and continue fighting.
Experts believe that prolonged U.S. involvement in the war will increase domestic political pressure on the president ahead of the midterm elections, as the administration needs a quick and convincing victory.
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