Since the beginning of the year, Russian forces have captured 4,669 sq. km of Ukrainian territory — 0.77% of the country’s area. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that this figure is 22% higher than in 2024, when Russia occupied 3,734 sq. km.
Source: Bukvy
Despite the slight increase in the pace of advancement, these gains come at a huge cost for the Russian army. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian losses since the beginning of 2025 have exceeded 391,000 killed and wounded, which amounts to more than 83 casualties per square kilometer.
ISW estimates that the pace of the Russian offensive “does not exceed walking speed,” even in areas where Russia achieved relatively greater advances — notably in the Huliaipole and Pokrovske directions.
Analysts predict that the speed of the advance will not increase in the near future due to the dominance of Ukrainian drones, which make rapid maneuvers with heavy equipment impossible and force the Russian army into exhausting frontal attacks.
At the same time, The Economist reports that since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia may have lost about 1% of its pre-war male population. According to the 2020–2021 census, over 68 million men lived in Russia, meaning the number of deaths could exceed 680,000.
If only working-age men are considered, losses are estimated at around 430,000 killed. Earlier Western intelligence estimates were significantly lower — 115,000–200,000 killed since the start of the war.
According to the General Staff, total Russian personnel losses (killed and wounded) have already exceeded 1.1 million. The Economist estimates total Russian losses at 1–1.35 million military personnel, surpassing U.S. losses in World War II.
Currently, Russia controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory — approximately 120,000 sq. km. The publication notes that to fully occupy the four regions — Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — Russia would have to continue fighting at least until June 2030, even if current pace is maintained.
Discussion about this post