The modernization of European armed forces will not produce a noticeable effect before 2028–2029, meaning the Kremlin could attempt to test NATO’s readiness even before rearmament is completed. This view was expressed by Commander of the Latvian Armed Forces General Kaspars Pudāns in an interview with the Financial Times.
Source: “Espreso”
According to the general, Russia’s main advantage today is not technological superiority, but its ability to rapidly scale up drone production and adapt them to battlefield needs. He noted that Russia’s defense industry has learned to quickly replenish drone stocks and produce them in large volumes, giving Moscow a tactical advantage.
At the same time, European countries are only beginning to launch military modernization programs, with results expected no earlier than 2028–2029. According to Pudāns, this period could be the most vulnerable. “If I were in the Kremlin, I would consider that any further steps should be taken by the end of 2028,” he said.
The Latvian general also emphasized that Russia’s war against Ukraine has become a testing ground for rapid deployment of new military technologies, allowing both sides to continuously improve weapons and tactics.
However, Pudāns noted that Russia currently lacks sufficient resources for a large-scale invasion of NATO countries, as a significant part of its military capacity is engaged in the war against Ukraine. But after the end of active combat operations, Moscow, in his assessment, could quickly rebuild its forces and create new threats to neighboring states.
He also distinguished between the risks of full-scale war and hybrid attacks — sabotage, cyberattacks, and information operations. According to him, Baltic states already have to factor in the possibility of such actions at any time.
The Financial Times also notes that parts of NATO’s eastern flank defense structures believe Russia may attempt to test the Alliance’s response even before European countries significantly strengthen their defense capabilities.
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