The report of the Munich Security Conference states that Russia may carry out aggression against European countries even after a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. Moscow allocates almost 8% of its GDP to military needs, which amounts to about 40% of Russia’s budget, while constant nuclear threats underscore the scale of the risks.
Source: PRYAMYI
Analysts note that Russia could rebuild its forces for a regional war in the Baltics within two years, and for a localized attack on a neighboring country — in as little as six months. At the same time, a ceasefire in Ukraine could only increase the threat to NATO countries, as it is the Ukrainian army that is currently holding back Russian forces.
The authors of the report emphasize that Moscow’s main trump cards are the combat experience gained in Ukraine and the mass use of strike UAVs. Even a small drone attack has already demonstrated serious threats: in September last year, several dozen Russian drones headed toward Poland, where most of them fell only due to running out of fuel.
Experts warn that a massive attack with thousands of strike UAVs could quickly destroy key air defense systems and hit military facilities and decision-making centers in a small European country. At present, Russia’s neighbors have no effective protection against such a scenario, which leaves Moscow with the ability to dictate terms to a defeated state.