During negotiations, Russia may present compliance with a moratorium on strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as a “major concession,” but in reality will use the pause to prepare a new massive attack. This is stated in a recent report by the Institute for the Study of War.
Source: Gazeta.UA
Analysts note that during the current talks in Geneva, the possibility of introducing another short-term moratorium on energy strikes is being discussed. The Kremlin has already used similar tactics in March–April 2025, as well as in January–February 2026.
During these periods, Moscow formally adhered to the restrictions while simultaneously stockpiling missiles and drones for subsequent large-scale attacks after the moratorium ended.
ISW emphasizes that Vladimir Putin may once again try to portray a temporary halt in strikes on energy facilities as a serious goodwill step, while at the same time preparing to launch a new devastating attack on Ukraine in the near future.