In January, the number of attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian oil refineries fell to the lowest level in the past six months. This allowed the Kremlin to increase fuel supplies to the domestic market and resume gasoline exports.
Source: Bukvy
According to official Bloomberg sources, during the month Ukraine carried out strikes on only three small independent refineries, compared with 11 such attacks in December. Altogether, these facilities account for less than 7% of Russia’s typical production volume.
This lull gave Russia’s refining industry a respite after a series of high-precision strikes last year. As a result, the Russian government lifted the ban on most gasoline export shipments, allowing exports to resume earlier than planned.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that the “balance of supply and demand has stabilized,” and that the country currently has a surplus of motor fuel. According to him, whereas exports had previously been halted to secure the domestic market, Russia now risks stockpiling fuel and may be forced to cut refining without access to external markets.
At the same time, Russia’s refining industry is still not operating at full capacity. According to estimates by analytics firm OilX, in January the country processed about 5.3 million barrels per day, while the usual figure for this period exceeds 5.6 million barrels per day.
In addition to refineries, the number of attacks on other Russian energy facilities — ports, offshore oil fields, and terminals — also declined in January.
Bloomberg notes that the reasons for this decrease remain unknown. Despite peace talks, Russia continues to strike Ukrainian infrastructure, paralyzing the energy system and leaving millions of people without heating and electricity during the freezing winter.