The combined losses of Russian and Ukrainian troops in the full-scale war against Ukraine could reach 2 million people as early as spring 2026. This includes those killed, wounded, and missing in action.
Source: Bukvy
This is stated in a new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington (CSIS). According to analysts’ estimates, since the beginning of the invasion Russia has lost nearly 1.2 million people, while Ukraine’s losses amount to about 600 thousand.
Thus, the total number of losses on both sides is already approaching 1.8 million people. The researchers emphasize that it is difficult to determine exact figures: Russia systematically understates its losses, and Ukraine does not publish official data. The study used, among other things, assessments by the governments of the United States and the United Kingdom.
CSIS also analyzed the situation on the front line. According to the center, in certain areas Russian forces are advancing at a rate of 15 to 70 meters per day. Since January 2024, Russia has occupied about 1.5% of Ukraine’s territory, while the total share of occupied territories is approximately 20%.
Due to winter conditions, the pace of the offensive has slowed on both sides. At the same time, combat tactics have also changed: due to the massive use of drones, Russia has partially abandoned large armored vehicle columns, preferring small infantry groups that move on foot or by motorcycle. Ukrainian troops, in turn, use tracks in the snow to detect enemy positions.
According to CSIS estimates, since February 24, 2022, Russia has lost about 325 thousand soldiers killed. The study emphasizes that no major power has suffered such losses since World War II. In 2025 alone, Russia’s total losses killed and wounded amounted to about 415 thousand people — an average of nearly 35 thousand per month.
As for Ukraine, lethal losses, according to analysts’ estimates, amount to between 100 and 140 thousand soldiers. At the same time, Russia has a significantly larger number of troops and population to replenish its army, while Ukraine is suffering significant losses within a smaller army.
Russia has managed to maintain the size of its forces thanks to partial mobilization, the recruitment of prisoners and debtors, as well as financial incentives for new recruits. The participation of about 15 thousand North Korean troops is also noted, of whom, according to South Korean intelligence, at least hundreds have been killed.
The war has also seriously hit Russia’s economy. One of the authors of the study, Seth Jones, noted that Russia’s war economy is under increasing pressure, and growth rates in 2025 may slow to 0.6%.
According to him, high losses, minimal territorial gains, and economic problems indicate a systemic weakening of Russia as a great power, despite the presence of nuclear weapons and significant military resources.