Аналітики Institute for the Study of War (ISW) оцінили, які цілі на території Росії могла б уражати Україна у разі отримання Tomahawk cruise missiles. According to experts, the use of such missiles would not necessarily cause a significant escalation — their employment would be comparable to the frequent long‑range strikes Russia carries out against Ukraine.
Source: Bukvy
ISW notes that Russia regularly uses long‑range cruise missiles against Ukraine, so a response using Tomahawks, analysts assess, would be similar in character to those strikes. Among the primary Ukrainian targets experts point to are:
the Engels‑2 airbase (Saratov region) — a base from which Russian strategic bombers take off during mass strikes;
the Shahed production plant in Yelabuga — a facility linked to the manufacture of UAVs used in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
ISW analysts emphasize that potential use of Tomahawks would correspond to the existing practice of Russian long‑range strikes and would be aimed at key military infrastructure rather than civilian targets.
Such a scenario underscores the strategic role of long‑range firepower in the conflict: the availability of long‑range missiles enables strikes on logistics, aviation infrastructure, and the opponent’s production capabilities, reducing its ability to carry out massed attacks.