Russia has sharply intensified military preparations in Transnistria and increased pressure on the south of Ukraine, forming a new threat to the Odesa region. This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Source: PRYAMYI
According to analysts, the Kremlin is trying to divert Ukrainian forces and force the Armed Forces of Ukraine to keep significant units in the southern direction.
The GUR is recording several dangerous developments in Transnistria:
• active conscription of reservists has begun;
• equipment is being taken out of storage;
• centers for training UAV operators are being opened;
• drone production is being established.
Ukrainian intelligence warns that such actions increase the risk of Russian sabotage groups infiltrating the Odesa region in the near future.
The ISW report notes that Odesa region has a direct common border with Transnistria, and the distance from Tiraspol to Odesa is less than 80 km. The deployment of Russian units equipped with drones creates a threat of medium-range strikes. Russia has long been attacking Ukraine’s rear areas at distances of 25–100 km, and part of these capabilities may be transferred to forces in Transnistria.
The GUR emphasizes that the Kremlin’s actions force Ukraine to strengthen southern defenses, prepare for sabotage, and work out scenarios of local incursions. Meanwhile, Russian propaganda is spreading narratives about a “Russian Odesa,” and threats of an offensive on the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions are becoming increasingly aggressive.
ISW analysts warn that Moscow is forming a foundation for possible offensive operations in the south. At the same time, large-scale attacks are not expected in the coming months. The most likely scenario is targeted strikes, sabotage, infiltration, and active use of drones at operational depth.
All assessments are made taking into account that the United States under the leadership of President Donald Trump is reviewing its approach to European security, which also affects the overall strategic balance in the region.