Russia is preparing for a prolonged mobilization campaign in order to compensate for significant losses in the war against Ukraine and increase troop numbers on the front line, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Source: Gazeta.UA
Analysts note that even in the case of large-scale conscription, the key problems for the Kremlin remain logistical constraints and the changing nature of warfare.
According to ISW assessments, Ukraine has significantly strengthened its defensive effectiveness through the widespread use of drones and medium-range strikes, effectively neutralizing Russia’s traditional numerical advantage.
The report emphasizes that Ukrainian drone operations create a so-called “kill zone” that complicates the movement of reserves, supply chains, and the holding of positions on the front line.
Due to high losses, lack of significant gains, and the worsening situation on the battlefield, analysts say motivation among Russians to sign military contracts is declining. This could make forced mobilization less effective than before.
ISW also notes that Russia not only needs to replenish personnel losses but also staff drone units and secure rear areas, which further complicates military planning.
Analysts conclude that without the ability to effectively counter Ukrainian drones, even an increase in troop numbers will not guarantee a significant improvement in Russian combat effectiveness.