The annual report of the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service states that the conclusion of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the near future is unlikely.
Source: Censor.NET
Russia is not achieving its initial goals and is dragging out negotiations
The report notes that the current pace of the Russian army’s advance is insufficient to achieve the Kremlin’s initial objectives — the capitulation of Ukraine in the near term.
This year, Moscow is likely to focus on the full capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which will have both political and military significance.
Intelligence believes that the Kremlin may deliberately delay peace negotiations, hoping to continue the war longer than Ukraine. At the same time, offensive actions by Russian troops in other regions indicate a desire to capture as much territory as possible to weaken Ukraine militarily, politically, and economically.
The current balance of forces does not allow either side to achieve a quick breakthrough or force significant concessions from the opponent.
“Russian armed forces continue to conduct attacks with mechanized units; however, the frequency and likely doctrinal necessity of their use has significantly decreased,” the report notes.
Stalemate on the front
According to the Latvian service, Russian tactics have limited potential for rapid advancement, as penetration and accumulation of infantry behind enemy lines occur slowly.
As a result, the battlefield is becoming less linear: in the frontline zone, a network of small “control islands” is forming, where both sides gradually attempt to push each other back. Instead of a clear front line, a broad “gray zone” often emerges, where the struggle for positions continues.
Despite significant losses, this tactic does not reduce the intensity of fighting, as Russia has still managed to replenish personnel. At the same time, intelligence notes that the country has already reached the limit of voluntary recruitment.
“Russia has reached the limit of voluntary conscription and will not be able to significantly increase troop numbers without declaring a full or partial mobilization,” the report states.
The conclusions of the Latvian Military Intelligence Service align with assessments by the Satversme Protection Bureau, which also believes that no significant strategic changes on the Ukrainian front are expected in the coming months.