Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, who expected a quick capture of Ukraine in 2022, has instead faced a prolonged war and growing internal tensions in Russia. British historian Robert Service called the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine a “gigantic geopolitical mistake” by the Kremlin. This was reported by The Telegraph.
Source: PRYAMYI
In his column, Service noted that Russian authorities have traditionally linked their legitimacy to military victories and recalled historical examples of defeats of the Russian Empire that led to political crises.
According to him, at the beginning of the invasion Putin expected a quick victory, and some Russian military personnel even took parade uniforms with them for a possible parade in Kyiv.
However, as the historian emphasizes, Ukraine turned out to be a much stronger opponent than the Kremlin expected. The war dealt a serious blow to the Russian economy, led to heavy military losses, and resulted in intensified mobilization measures, including year-round conscription.
Service also pointed out that this year’s May 9 parade on Red Square took place without demonstrations of modern military equipment due to fears of Ukrainian drone attacks.
At the same time, the historian believes Putin still holds certain “strong cards,” including influence on international politics, particularly the position of US President Donald Trump, who, in his assessment, has made a number of concessions to the Russian leadership.
Service also noted increasing internal tensions in Russia and growing control over the information space, including restrictions on certain messengers and the promotion of state digital services.
In his view, even if the war ends on Kremlin terms, Russia will no longer be able to restore its former geopolitical influence.