⚠️ The macroeconomic situation in Ukraine is worsening. In 2024, the recovery effect after 2022 ended, and the low comparison base that ensured record growth in 2023 no longer applies. Ukraine’s economy has reached a “growth ceiling” and without additional positive factors, it will not return to “plus.”
Source: OBOZREVATEL
📊 By the end of the first half of 2025, key macro indicators began to decline. The main business problems are rising tariffs for energy and gas supply, increased costs of rail freight, higher production expenses, labor shortages, and insufficient crediting.
🏭 Industrial production has fallen by 6.1% year-on-year since the beginning of the year, construction work by 11%. Declines are felt in residential (-7.4%) and engineering construction (-26.6%).
🌍 External factors also negatively affect the economy: due to tariff wars and global economic uncertainty, Ukraine’s exports in Q1 2025 decreased by 7.4%, or $786 million — down to $9.9 billion.
🚨 Adding poor management decisions and government inaction, economic activity will continue to decline.
📈 To recover after the war, Ukraine needs GDP growth of at least 6-7% per year. Without a strong industrial base, even recovery to pre-war levels will be impossible. Currently, these prerequisites do not exist.
⚠️ There is a risk of stagflation amid GDP decline and rising inflation, which will be extremely difficult to overcome during wartime.
🔍 There is also no solution yet for delaying the application of the European CBAM mechanism for Ukraine, which may strike a blow to exports of key sectors — energy, metallurgy, and cement industry.
🏭 In 2024, metallurgy provided Ukraine with 15.2% of export revenues ($6.4 billion), with key products being iron ore ($2.8 billion) and steel ($2.4 billion). The mining and metallurgical complex accounted for 18.3% of capital investments in industry. Large metallurgical companies paid about $1 billion in taxes.
Discussion about this post